Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f64…aa37
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $46 +$4 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $88 +$11 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% +$16
world 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 91¢ $46 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $88 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $2 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $6 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% +0.7%
≤30d 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% +0.7%
≤90d 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% +0.7%
all 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 67% +0.7%
10% -5.1% 50% -9.0%
15% -14.2% 17% -17.8%
20% -22.7% 17% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.12 · official $16.12 (match) · 15 history records