Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f65…a0ad sports 308 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$899 (+3%) realized +$960 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%151W / 146L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$622
7 days−$1,161
14 days−$3,195
30 days−$2,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,511
other 18% −$798
politics 2% +$160
world 1% +$99
tech 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -39.7% -45.4% 37% 35% -15.4%
≤30d 215 -28.4% -35.2% 40% 38% -19.6%
≤90d 219 -25.3% -32.4% 41% 39% -19.4%
all 297 +1.7% -7.9% 51% 48% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 48% -6.1%
10% -16.8% 43% -15.1%
15% -24.8% 33% -23.3%
20% -32.2% 25% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$62 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$1,097
Realized+$960
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses151 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions11
Markets (closed)297 / 308
History coverage228d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $296 $294 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 85¢ $219 $255 +$36 (+16%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $248 $184 −$64 (-26%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $161 $156 −$5 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 31¢ $46 $31 −$15 (-33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $21 $15 −$7 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $148 +$52 +35%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $104 −$103 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $124 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $82 +$68 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $265 +$153 +58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $220 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $130 +$120 +92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $150 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $100 −$60 -60%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $125 −$81 -65%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $336 −$298 -88%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $121 −$120 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $267 +$127 +47%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $84 −$82 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $685 +$188 +28%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $340 +$159 +47%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 +$37 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $150 −$82 -55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $158 +$42 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $164 +$36 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $164 +$86 +53%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $66 +$24 +37%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 +$18 +18%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $182 +$18 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $130 −$127 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 +$50 +33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $180 −$111 -62%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $299 −$153 -51%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $260 +$40 +15%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $36 +$64 +176%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $94 +$106 +113%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $126 +$74 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $110 +$90 +82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $35 +$6 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $56 16m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $21 59m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $11 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $35 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $8 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $19 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $200 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $104 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $117 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $124 14h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $16 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $104 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $28 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $68 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $78 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $65 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $67 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $250 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $131 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $116 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $70 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $12 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $107 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $23 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 72¢ $143 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,097.03 · official $1,085.79 · 1177 history records