Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f66…59f4 politics 30 markets active 6d ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$13
politics 28% −$32
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -27.4% -34.4% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -40.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -46.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -51.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage666d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $307 $307 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will Michael Smith win the PDC World Darts Championship? Apr 28 $295 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 28 $291 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $291 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $9 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Sep 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-03? Jul 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? May 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? May 03 $2 $0 +4%
Penguins vs. Wild May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Mar 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Mar 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Mar 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Mar 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Mar 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $0 $0 +0%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Mar 09 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Mar 09 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Warriors vs. Kings Mar 09 $48 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Jan 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Aug 25 $10,000 −$10 -0%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 25 $993 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $308 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $304 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $304 50d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $2 50d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $289 127d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $291 128d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $191 157d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $100 157d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $1 157d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $291 158d
Will Michael Smith win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $295 178d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 191d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 218d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 218d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 243d
Will Victor Ponta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 100¢ $9 266d
Will Victor Ponta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 100¢ $9 266d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $9 337d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $9 337d
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? SELL No 100¢ $9 410d
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? BUY No 100¢ $9 410d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10 465d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $10 465d
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $2 510d
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $2 557d
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? BUY Yes $0 589d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $0 615d
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec BUY Yes $1 654d
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? BUY Yes $8 660d
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes $8 660d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.34 · official $307.34 (match) · 191 history records