Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f69…50a5 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$645 (-9%) realized −$681 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$346
7 days−$527
14 days−$603
30 days−$603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$308
crypto 8% −$212
weather 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.5% -23.5% 36% 36% -18.3%
≤30d 44 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 39% -19.2%
≤90d 44 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 39% -19.2%
all 44 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 39% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 39% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 32% -26.9%
15% -45.3% 25% -34.0%
20% -50.7% 11% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$43 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,243
Realized−$681
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $969 $1,086 +$117 (+12%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $227 $150 −$77 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $150 +$77 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $1,392 −$423 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$11 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $500 +$206 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $126 −$43 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $500 −$238 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $216 −$101 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $500 +$235 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +92%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $1,420 −$162 -11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $500 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $227 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $227 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $969 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $969 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $700 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $706 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $85 2d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $85 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $340 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 41¢ $83 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 34¢ $262 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 63¢ $126 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $500 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $66 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,243.24 · official $1,272.91 · 192 history records