Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4F 0x4f6c…be8c crypto 534 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$406 (-18%) realized −$331 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%192W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$49
14 days−$36
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$132
other 43% −$316
sports 4% +$33
world 1% −$13
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -29.5% -36.2% 38% 38% -48.6%
≤30d 30 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 47% -21.0%
≤90d 285 -44.7% -49.9% 28% 26% -39.6%
all 518 -17.1% -25.0% 37% 34% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 34% -25.0%
10% -32.2% 30% -32.2%
15% -38.8% 27% -38.7%
20% -44.8% 24% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$331
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses192 / 326
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)518 / 534
History coverage103d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $2 −$34 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$9 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +87%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$24 +116%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $5 +$3 +52%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $45 +$43 +95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $97 −$72 -74%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 +$18 +177%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 +$1 +34%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$4 +180%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $9 +$5 +51%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$8 +76%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +51%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $46 −$31 -67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 +$22 +148%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +67%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 38h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $44 9d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 14d
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.18 · official $149.22 (match) · 1355 history records