Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f6f…f071 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$19
politics 35% −$8
tech 7% −$1
crypto 7% $0
world 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$945) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage86d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,203 −$3 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 17 $1,223 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $1,202 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 14 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $960 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 19 $945 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $970 −$12 -1%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $952 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $193 $0 -0%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 29 $89 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 46h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 46h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $22 46h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 47h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $22 47h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close SELL No 100¢ $1,222 2d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $131 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $4 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $130 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $153 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $146 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $99 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $37 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $136 3d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close BUY No 100¢ $1,223 3d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records