Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f6f…d024 sports 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,898 (-15%) realized −$297 · open −$2,601
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%28W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day74.2pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$3,299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$5,473
sports 30% −$109
crypto 1% −$79
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -18.2% -26.0% 30% 28% -31.7%
≤30d 94 -18.9% -26.7% 30% 28% -31.7%
≤90d 94 -18.9% -26.7% 30% 28% -31.7%
all 94 -18.9% -26.7% 30% 28% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 28% -31.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 26% -38.2%
15% -40.1% 21% -44.2%
20% -46.0% 15% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$96 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3,299
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$2,601
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 66
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions46
Markets (closed)94 / 140
History coverage9d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day74.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,131 $1,144 +$13 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 28¢ $1,239 $553 −$686 (-55%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $61 $243 +$182 (+300%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $201 $210 +$8 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $195 $184 −$11 (-6%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 84¢ $147 $164 +$17 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $135 $122 −$13 (-10%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $112 $109 −$3 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 25¢ 42¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+67%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $37 −$6 (-15%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 18¢ 17¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 6¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-22%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 36¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $17 $14 −$4 (-21%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $61 −$61 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $439 −$428 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $156 +$141 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $121 −$15 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $194 −$191 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $228 +$92 +40%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $178 +$57 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $351 +$305 +87%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 +$129 +237%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 −$21 -31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $185 −$182 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$46 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 −$79 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $99 −$96 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $56 +$19 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $59 +$143 +241%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $327 +$51 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$15 -62%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$44 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $604 −$43 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $361 +$199 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $223 −$219 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $239 −$235 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $84 −$82 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $287 −$180 -63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $227 −$205 -90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $250 −$244 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$146 +982%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $297 +$106 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $99 +$54 +54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $130 −$31 -24%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $299 −$297 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $36 −$35 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $247 −$244 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $360 +$314 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 17m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 17m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 18m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 39m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 43m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $148 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $496 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $121 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $52 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $65 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $99 2h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,298.53 · official $3,307.62 (match) · 685 history records