Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4F 0x4f72…132f crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%106W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$37
other 21% −$42
sports 16% +$88
world 2% −$6
politics 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +54.0% +39.4% 91% 82% +38.2%
≤30d 21 +18.5% +7.2% 76% 62% +1.7%
≤90d 32 +8.1% -2.2% 69% 59% -1.6%
all 166 +17.5% +6.3% 64% 52% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 52% -9.2%
10% -3.8% 36% -17.9%
15% -13.1% 27% -25.8%
20% -21.6% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses106 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)166 / 174
History coverage330d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +84%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$5 +452%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $4 $0 +6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -50%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 17 $2 $0 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 10 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $1 +$1 +60%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $2 $0 +11%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $2 +$2 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $1 $0 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12PM ET Mar 09 $23 −$11 -49%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $3 +$1 +39%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 8? Mar 08 $10 +$2 +24%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $14 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 11? Feb 10 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $3 +$3 +91%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 09 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 04 $24 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $180 −$58 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $165 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12PM ET Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 1? Feb 01 $80 +$4 +4%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $5 +$2 +35%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $5 +$3 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $6 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 7d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 90¢ $1 14d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 70¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 17¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 74¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $2 14d
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 20d
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.03 · official $12.03 (match) · 483 history records