Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f72…c435 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$169 (+2%) realized +$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate95%55W / 3L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$22
other 20% −$13
politics 12% +$114
tech 8% +$2
world 4% +$42
sports 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 94% 0% -10.0%
all 58 +3.4% -6.4% 95% 9% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 9% -7.7%
10% -15.4% 9% -16.5%
15% -23.5% 9% -24.6%
20% -31.0% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.32 per $1 lost it wins $6.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses55 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage610d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $292 $292 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $220 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $156 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 27? May 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $210 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 13 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $137 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $137 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $218 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 14 $145 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Apr 14 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 12? Mar 22 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 12? Mar 22 $150 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 11 $360 +$1 +0%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Feb 03 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 03 $148 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 03 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 4? Jan 27 $168 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 04 $173 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on December 11? Dec 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 11 $180 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 11 $185 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 25 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Nov 05 $170 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 05 $225 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12? Oct 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12? Oct 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? Oct 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 10 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 13? Sep 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 13? Sep 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 13 $220 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 08 $238 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 18 $130 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? Jun 18 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 19 $166 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 19 $215 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 15 $170 +$1 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 15 $175 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 21 $300 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $220 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $122 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $115 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $156 37d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 37d
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 59d
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 64d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $137 64d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $65 64d
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 66d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 66d
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 89d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 89d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 17 to March BUY No 100¢ $172 89d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 99d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 100d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $125 100d
Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 130d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $360 136d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $11 136d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $148 143d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $220 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 4? BUY No 100¢ $168 166d
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $12 166d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $200 190d
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on December 11? BUY No 100¢ $200 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $180 206d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $201 206d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.22 · official $292.22 (match) · 119 history records