Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f77…fcde crypto 50 markets active 5d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$23 (+21%) realized +$18 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$4
crypto 22% −$2
world 19% +$8
sports 10% +$25
politics 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +138.1% +115.4% 33% 33% +193.8%
≤90d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 30% 28% +14.0%
all 43 -15.0% -23.1% 30% 28% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 28% +14.0%
10% -30.5% 28% +3.1%
15% -37.2% 26% -6.9%
20% -43.3% 26% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage71d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 98¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+207%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 53¢ 87¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$31 +614%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026? May 02 $1 +$2 +163%
Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30? Apr 25 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $1 $0 -22%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -48%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 72 and 73 million views on day Apr 09 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +123%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $6 +$14 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 04 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $3 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $0 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $2 38d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $3 38d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 45d
Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30? SELL Yes $1 53d
Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30? BUY Yes $1 55d
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL Yes $1 56d
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY Yes $1 61d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 62d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 63d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 64d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 64d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 65d
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 66d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 66d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 66d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL No $0 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.02 · official $25.02 (match) · 91 history records