Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f7c…857f
crypto · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$6 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +252%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$7
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $21 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 37% -6.4%
≤30d 46 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 37% -6.4%
≤90d 46 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 37% -6.4%
all 46 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 37% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 37% -6.4%
10% -20.2% 35% -15.4%
15% -27.9% 33% -23.6%
20% -35.0% 30% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records