Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f7c…a622
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 2 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? No 23¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 22 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Brøndby IF vs. FC København end in a draw? May 21 $7 +$3 +46%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $8 −$2 -24%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $8 $0 +5%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? May 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $18 −$16 -88%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 17 $8 +$5 +57%
Will D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? May 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$14
crypto 19% −$14
sports 19% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 23¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 7¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026 BUY 14¢ $1 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 24d
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 24d
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +39.9% +26.6% 75% 75% +21.8%
≤30d 30 -16.9% -24.8% 53% 33% -16.2%
≤90d 30 -16.9% -24.8% 53% 33% -16.2%
all 30 -16.9% -24.8% 53% 33% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 33% -16.2%
10% -32.0% 20% -24.2%
15% -38.6% 20% -31.5%
20% -44.6% 17% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.78 · official $15.78 · 70 history records