Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f7d…b3ff
crypto · 576 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,312 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,295 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$105
Realized−$4,295
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses162 / 402
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions12
Markets (closed)564 / 576
History coverage19d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day136.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 12 History 564 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$474
7 days−$1,632
14 days−$3,827
30 days−$4,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 37¢ 48¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 69¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Haiti 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 87¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-72%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$4 +85%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $26 +$19 +74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $16 +$14 +92%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$10 -24%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$41 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $91 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $60 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $69 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $86 +$55 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $83 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $69 +$79 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $75 −$74 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$71 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$34 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$7 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$4,680
sports 15% +$470
other 1% −$104
world 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 12m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 76¢ $20 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 15m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $5 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $6 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 -26.2% -33.2% 32% 30% -30.8%
≤30d 564 -34.9% -41.1% 29% 27% -34.2%
≤90d 564 -34.9% -41.1% 29% 27% -34.2%
all 564 -34.9% -41.1% 29% 27% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover136.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.1% 27% -34.2%
10% ← realistic here -46.7% 25% -40.5%
15% -51.9% 23% -46.3%
20% -56.6% 20% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.78 · official $100.47 · 2829 history records