Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f83…1a6b sports 472 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,495 (+28%) realized +$4,495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate59%279W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$260
other 9% −$6
crypto 8% −$179
world 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 9% -10.1%
≤30d 118 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 4% -10.5%
≤90d 471 -7.8% -16.5% 59% 7% -12.0%
all 471 -7.8% -16.5% 59% 7% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 7% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 4% -20.4%
15% -31.8% 3% -28.1%
20% -38.5% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$4,495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses279 / 192
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)471 / 472
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 46¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $502 −$4 -1%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $11 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $18 $0 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $2 $0 -0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $3 $0 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $28 +$1 +3%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $39 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $332 −$3 -1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $285 −$3 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $57 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $31 40m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $3 40m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $2 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $9 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $3 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $1 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $24 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $8 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $2 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $2 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $1 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 76¢ $2 15h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 100¢ $1 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 100¢ $1 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 100¢ $3 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 100¢ $2 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $2 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $13 16h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 87¢ $2 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $502 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $8 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $2 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $3 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $6 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 100¢ $17 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.22 · official $88.46 (match) · 3500 history records