Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f83…b2c6 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%57W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$1
other 26% +$1
tech 12% $0
finance 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 58 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 58 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×12.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×721.29 per $1 lost it wins $721.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses57 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage9d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Leones de Ponce vs. Mets de Guaynabo Leones de Ponce 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Leones de Ponce vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Leones de Ponce 100¢ $13 13m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 12h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 100¢ $50 14h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 28h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 100¢ $50 3d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $50 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.77 · official $62.77 (match) · 118 history records