Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f84…173a other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$247 (+3%) realized +$240 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$221
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$21
other 40% +$226
crypto 14% +$1
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 25% -1.3%
≤90d 15 +2.8% -6.9% 100% 7% -6.1%
all 18 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 6% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -6.5%
10% -16.1% 6% -15.4%
15% -24.2% 6% -23.6%
20% -31.7% 0% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$774
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage100d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 59¢ 60¢ $767 $774 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $776 +$1 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $556 +$220 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $555 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? Jun 01 $550 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the May 11 $300 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 28 $554 +$1 +0%
Will Justin Bieber feature Rihanna during his Coachella performances? Apr 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will Justin Bieber feature The Weeknd during his Coachella performance Apr 21 $132 +$1 +1%
Will Justin Bieber feature Kanye West during his Coachella performance Apr 21 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $50? Apr 11 $160 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $60? Apr 11 $350 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $549 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? Apr 01 $548 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 23 $537 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 20? Mar 21 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 20? Mar 21 $361 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.82 · official $773.82 (match) · 39 history records