Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f86…b368 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
other 43% $0
sports 5% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage120d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $92 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 14 $93 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $93 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 07 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $95 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 22h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $13 22h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 5d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $92 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $92 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $92 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 26d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $92 32d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $93 32d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $93 39d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $93 40d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 42d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 42d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $93 46d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $93 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $93 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $6 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $10 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $8 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $9 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $7 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $47 49d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $93 54d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $93 54d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $95 77d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $95 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records