Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f87…f04e sports 695 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,528 (+8%) realized +$3,539 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%368W / 325L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$533est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$12,206
14 days−$5,868
30 days+$3,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,093
world 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -58.4% -62.4% 28% 24% -59.5%
≤30d 664 +1.8% -7.9% 53% 47% -11.6%
≤90d 693 +5.4% -4.6% 53% 47% -11.6%
all 693 +5.4% -4.6% 53% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 47% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 37% -20.1%
15% -22.1% 31% -27.8%
20% -29.7% 23% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +74% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$51 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,539
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses368 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$533
Open positions2
Markets (closed)693 / 695
History coverage63d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Team Nemesis 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$8 +41%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 +$18 +30%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $137 +$100 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 +$10 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $59 +$36 +62%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 +$8 +28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$26 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $14 +$11 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $66 +$39 +59%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $18 +$9 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $83 +$42 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 +$9 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $32 +$4 +14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $77 +$25 +32%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $114 +$9 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$3 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $355 +$11 +3%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $193 −$193 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 14 $163 +$108 +67%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $215 +$145 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 29¢ $6 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $13 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $5 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $6 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 16¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 16¢ $8 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $59 4h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $237 4h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $18 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $77 5h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $119 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $5 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $12 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $36 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $60 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $57 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $29 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $8 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $5 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $95 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 2310 history records