Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f8a…5f9a crypto 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%233W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$91
other 3% −$6
politics 0% −$16
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 33 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 73 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 266 -1.5% -10.9% 88% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses233 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)266 / 268
History coverage518d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $64 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $63 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 23 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $47 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $144 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17? May 17 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $142 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 14? May 14 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 13? May 13 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? May 11 $140 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 10? May 10 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 8? May 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 8? May 08 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $139 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $36 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $70 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $70 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $69 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $69 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $69 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $68 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $66 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $66 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $65 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $177 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $65 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $64 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $64 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $63 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $101 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $61 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $100 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $100 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 98¢ $49 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $149 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.18 · official $71.18 (match) · 602 history records