Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f8f…35f0 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 56L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$17
other 28% +$26
politics 19% +$3
economics 9% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% +$2
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.6% 20% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 23 +0.1% -9.5% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 85 +0.2% -9.4% 34% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage446d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $129 −$8 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $232 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $179 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $193 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $115 −$4 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $86 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $96 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $9 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $88 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $84 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $70 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $2 $0 -8%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $413 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $109 −$9 -8%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $662 +$3 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $129 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 08 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jul 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 08 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $86 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $23 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $66 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $68 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $85 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $78 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $86 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.06 · official $85.06 (match) · 342 history records