Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4F 0x4f90…517d crypto 405 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,511 (+3%) realized +$1,512 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%224W / 180L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,174
7 days−$551
14 days+$530
30 days+$1,515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1,046
crypto 21% −$1,382
politics 8% +$782
other 8% +$645
sports 2% +$90
finance 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 75% 75% -14.5%
≤30d 31 +5.7% -4.4% 74% 74% -4.7%
≤90d 398 -10.5% -19.0% 55% 49% -7.3%
all 404 -10.5% -19.0% 55% 49% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 49% -7.3%
10% -26.7% 40% -16.2%
15% -33.8% 34% -24.3%
20% -40.3% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$61 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$1,512
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses224 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)404 / 405
History coverage107d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $4,785 +$2,104 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $830 +$170 +20%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $142 +$58 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$44 +17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 +$45 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 +$26 +33%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 14 $432 +$145 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $950 −$950 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,153 −$2,153 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $2,406 +$345 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1,364 −$342 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $2,137 +$276 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1,856 −$150 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $2,218 +$750 +34%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $400 +$166 +41%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $440 +$54 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $800 +$184 +23%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $528 +$112 +21%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $303 +$92 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $400 +$57 +14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $991 +$1,699 +172%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 31 $630 +$167 +26%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 30 $397 −$395 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $230 +$68 +29%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $1,428 +$718 +50%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $1,151 −$1,151 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $571 +$45 +8%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $204 +$160 +79%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $1,100 −$103 -9%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,076 +$88 +8%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,028 +$319 +31%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 11 $184 +$26 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $591 +$149 +25%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $205 +$62 +30%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 04 $396 −$19 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 04 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $160 +$12 +8%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27 May 02 $360 +$33 +9%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 02 $350 +$154 +44%
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30? May 01 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? Apr 30 $275 +$11 +4%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Apr 29 $888 +$12 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 26 $996 +$658 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5,130 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $123 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 83¢ $707 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $978 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $361 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $121 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $306 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $307 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $297 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $253 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $257 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $8 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $148 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $114 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $264 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $111 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $95 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $100 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $81 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $1,900 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $470 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.65 · official $104.05 · 1229 history records