Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f91…38e2 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$446 (+37%) realized +$447 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$301
14 days+$323
30 days+$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$430
other 34% +$74
crypto 8% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +45.3% +31.5% 62% 50% +114.5%
≤30d 18 +43.9% +30.2% 50% 39% +40.5%
≤90d 28 +17.8% +6.6% 46% 36% +28.4%
all 28 +17.8% +6.6% 46% 36% +28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 36% +28.4%
10% -3.6% 36% +16.1%
15% -12.9% 36% +4.9%
20% -21.5% 25% -5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$23 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$447
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage45d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $91 +$86 +94%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$96 +304%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$110 +216%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 +$197 +392%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $123 −$101 -82%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$2 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $296 −$3 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $121 +$269 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 22 $32 −$30 -94%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 22 $70 −$33 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 13 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 13 $5 +$9 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 11h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $11 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $10 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs $5 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $1 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $58 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $5 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $5 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 16¢ $10 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $10 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 34¢ $20 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $10 14d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 17¢ $10 15d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 22¢ $41 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.90 · official $53.90 (match) · 82 history records