Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f91…ed9b crypto 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-7%) realized −$92 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate90%159W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$91
other 28% −$22
sports 13% +$11
tech 10% +$1
politics 6% +$1
world 2% +$8
finance 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 78 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 177 -0.0% -9.6% 90% 8% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 8% -15.8%
10% -18.2% 6% -23.9%
15% -26.1% 5% -31.2%
20% -33.4% 2% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses159 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage546d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $58 +$1 +1%
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $21 +$1 +5%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $27 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $53 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeti May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $5 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 41h
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $12 28d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 29d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 95¢ $21 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $27 43d
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 47d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 47d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 47d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $5 48d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 48d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 49d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 52d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $3 52d
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $3 53d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 53d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 59d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 59d
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 69d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $2 70d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $2 70d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $4 70d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 70d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 70d
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.70 · official $60.70 (match) · 409 history records