Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f93…e0b7 other 11 markets active 3d ago coverage 587d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$371 (-31%) realized −$373 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$341
14 days−$341
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$338
politics 6% +$47
sports 2% −$25
world 2% −$20
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -80.8%
≤30d 4 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -80.8%
≤90d 6 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -81.8%
all 9 -42.8% -48.2% 22% 22% -64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 22% -64.4%
10% -53.2% 22% -67.8%
15% -57.7% 22% -70.9%
20% -61.8% 22% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$55 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$373
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage587d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $240 $242 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $122 −$119 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $371 −$216 -58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $45 −$4 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $64 +$41 +64%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $10 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $122 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $160 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $54 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $89 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 5¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $211 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $40 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $41 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $45 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $45 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $46 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $53 45d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $98 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $1 71d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 95d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 123d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 123d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 123d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 123d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 100¢ $105 123d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 4¢ $4 125d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $200 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 590d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.04 · official $243.00 (match) · 115 history records