Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f96…fdc5 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+5%) realized +$115 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$23
14 days+$96
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$68
other 3% +$33
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 33% -4.1%
≤30d 12 +2.5% -7.2% 92% 33% -1.3%
≤90d 13 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 31% -1.6%
all 28 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 39% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 39% -4.2%
10% -21.0% 25% -13.4%
15% -28.6% 18% -21.8%
20% -35.6% 14% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage132d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Ireland 5¢ 4¢ $25 $23 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $33 +$1 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $242 +$6 +3%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $108 +$15 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $153 +$9 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $196 +$48 +24%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $84 +$2 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $385 +$11 +3%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Botswa May 28 $32 −$21 -65%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $76 +$4 +5%
Will Ireland win? May 27 $61 +$33 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 03 $3 +$3 +99%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $201 −$25 -13%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 17 $49 +$5 +10%
T20 World Cup: Ireland vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 17 $26 $0 -2%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 16 $50 +$11 +22%
T20 World Cup: England vs Italy (Game 1) Feb 16 $11 +$1 +10%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 16 $73 +$26 +36%
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 14 $16 +$2 +12%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 13 $61 +$15 +25%
T20 World Cup: India vs Namibia (Game 1) Feb 12 $72 −$41 -57%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 12 $8 −$2 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies SELL England 86¢ $34 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 5¢ $25 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 8h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 8h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 8h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 5¢ $0 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY England 82¢ $33 15h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 94¢ $47 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 92¢ $28 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $26 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 92¢ $46 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $45 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $45 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 6¢ $6 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 6¢ $4 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 6¢ $2 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 6¢ $12 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 89¢ $27 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 86¢ $4 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 86¢ $7 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 86¢ $7 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 86¢ $7 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 91¢ $46 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 89¢ $44 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $44 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $44 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 39¢ $8 5d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 39¢ $12 5d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 34¢ $17 5d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 40¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.95 · official $22.95 (match) · 397 history records