Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f98…c81a other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+0%) realized −$120 · open +$212
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,237per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 231d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$8,736
sports 33% +$15,789
world 13% −$4,433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% +35.8%
≤30d 6 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% +35.8%
≤90d 6 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% +35.8%
all 21 -16.5% -24.5% 33% 29% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 29% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 29% -15.4%
15% -38.3% 24% -23.6%
20% -44.4% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$5,309) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,534 vs −$2,095 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$1,188
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage231d
Avg bet$3,237
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $975 $1,188 +$212 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,656 +$2,616 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,061 +$2,538 +83%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2,434 +$3,418 +140%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $774 −$60 -8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $806 −$795 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $915 −$900 -98%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 Mar 15 $3,700 −$2,566 -69%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 Mar 15 $2,055 −$1,692 -82%
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5) Mar 15 $245 −$152 -62%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $5,008 +$1,744 +35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $904 −$904 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5,309 −$4,404 -83%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $1,701 +$3,608 +212%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $6,000 −$4,299 -72%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $9,930 +$17,653 +178%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $9,945 −$4,433 -45%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $6,641 −$6,244 -94%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1,667 +$162 +10%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $2,048 −$748 -36%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 89¢ $934 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 89¢ $18 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 89¢ $5,655 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 89¢ $1,665 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $5,656 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2,448 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $613 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $2,533 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $993 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $715 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $774 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $806 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $915 25h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,190 27h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $54 27h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $157 27h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,032 27h
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 SELL Over 52¢ $334 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 SELL Over 10¢ $336 97d
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5) SELL Cavaliers 16¢ $93 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 SELL Over 10¢ $27 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 SELL Over 16¢ $800 97d
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,000 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,055 97d
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5) BUY Cavaliers 43¢ $245 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2,000 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,650 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 97d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 BUY Over 66¢ $46 97d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,753 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,187.50 · official $3,679.72 · 117 history records