Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4F 0x4f98…9e1a crypto 118 markets active 31d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$33,088 (+229%) realized +$33,088 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +184% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +157% what you keep after slip
Net edge+157%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate93%110W / 8L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$15,231
sports 43% +$16,698
politics 6% +$711
culture 1% +$496
crypto 1% −$6
finance 0% −$31
weather 0% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+157.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 -15.9% -23.9% 83% 0% -54.5%
all 118 +184.2% +157.2% 93% 15% +145.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +157.2% 15% +145.7%
10% +132.6% 14% +122.2%
15% +110.1% 14% +100.7%
20% +89.5% 14% +81.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +184% · $-wt +230% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +305% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$572 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.23 per $1 lost it wins $8.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33,088
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses110 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage140d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? May 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 10? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 10? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 10? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 9? May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 31 $2 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $2 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 31 $2 $0 +4%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 31 $3 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $6 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 14 $47 −$31 -66%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 27? Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 27? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 27? Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 8? Mar 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Fe Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 08 $1 $0 +1%
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 27? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 27? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 27? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 27? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 27? Mar 08 $2 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 2? Feb 27 $242 +$11,618 +4800%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 2? Feb 27 $5 +$224 +4800%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 10? Feb 27 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? BUY No 90¢ $12 31d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 9? BUY No 99¢ $6 37d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $1 37d
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 75d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 92d
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $2 92d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $2 92d
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $2 92d
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $3 92d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $2 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL No 23¢ $16 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 66¢ $47 97d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 98d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 107d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 27? BUY No 99¢ $1 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 107d
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $1 107d
Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $2 107d
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $2 107d
Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $2 107d
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records