Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f9a…6b21 crypto 554 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (278 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$679 (-4%) realized −$679 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate39%302W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day278.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$466
7 days−$563
14 days−$690
30 days−$690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (278 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 542 -43.0% -48.4% 37% 26% -12.6%
≤30d 783 -31.2% -37.7% 39% 22% -12.5%
≤90d 783 -31.2% -37.7% 39% 22% -12.5%
all 783 -31.2% -37.7% 39% 22% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover278.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 22% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 9% -20.9%
15% -49.1% 6% -28.5%
20% -54.1% 4% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$679
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses302 / 481
Open positions0
Markets (closed)783 / 554
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day278.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 783 Trades
no open positions (280 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $408 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $124 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $208 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $755 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $278 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $278 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records