Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f9b…7a0b sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$31 (+9%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$39
other 7% −$22
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.1% -34.0% 23% 23% -15.9%
≤30d 13 -27.1% -34.0% 23% 23% -15.9%
≤90d 13 -27.1% -34.0% 23% 23% -15.9%
all 13 -27.1% -34.0% 23% 23% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 23% -15.9%
10% -40.3% 23% -24.0%
15% -46.1% 15% -31.3%
20% -51.4% 8% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$17 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $132 −$66 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -10%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$75 +367%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -74%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$10 -66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $65 +$26 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $112 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $17 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $20 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 30h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 30h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $5 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records