Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4F 0x4f9b…7e51 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$88 (+11%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$27
other 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.5% -4.5% 33% 33% -17.0%
≤30d 3 +5.5% -4.5% 33% 33% -17.0%
≤90d 3 +5.5% -4.5% 33% 33% -17.0%
all 13 -14.7% -22.9% 46% 46% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 46% -4.8%
10% -30.2% 38% -13.9%
15% -37.0% 23% -22.3%
20% -43.2% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage230d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $251 −$47 -19%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $52 +$22 +42%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo Jan 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Jan 29 $10 −$6 -56%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play Jan 28 $137 +$56 +41%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playof Jan 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoff Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $11 +$3 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play Jan 25 $189 +$37 +20%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $32 +$13 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $24 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 15¢ $26 26m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $44 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $53 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 54¢ $97 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $80 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 83¢ $80 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $73 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 33¢ $10 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $10 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $74 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $52 3d
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $9 141d
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff SELL FunPlus Phoenix 21¢ $4 141d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play SELL TEC Esports 100¢ $193 142d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play BUY TEC Esports 72¢ $117 142d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playof BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $12 142d
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff BUY FunPlus Phoenix 48¢ $10 142d
Valorant: Trace Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoff BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $10 142d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play BUY TEC Esports 64¢ $20 142d
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $14 145d
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $10 145d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playof BUY EDward Gaming 73¢ $11 145d
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 59¢ $11 145d
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY KT Rolster 79¢ $11 145d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $226 145d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play BUY Paper Rex 83¢ $189 145d
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 229d
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? BUY Yes 71¢ $32 229d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $32 229d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 76¢ $24 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records