Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f9c…3ddc crypto 629 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$80 (+3%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate83%525W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$44
14 days+$47
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 +6.4% -3.8% 86% 75% -5.1%
≤30d 629 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 72% -8.0%
≤90d 629 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 72% -8.0%
all 629 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 72% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 72% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 28% -16.8%
15% -23.2% 7% -24.8%
20% -30.7% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses525 / 104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)629 / 629
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 629 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1238 history records