Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4F 0x4f9d…9854 politics 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,124 (+7%) realized +$1,126 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate66%130W / 66L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$40
14 days−$33
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% +$577
world 12% +$217
finance 9% +$57
sports 3% −$50
crypto 2% −$5
other 1% +$13
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +262.2% +227.7% 40% 40% +89.9%
≤30d 58 +17.1% +5.9% 62% 34% -1.4%
≤90d 171 +2.5% -7.3% 65% 33% -2.3%
all 196 +1.5% -8.2% 66% 32% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 32% -3.7%
10% -17.0% 24% -12.9%
15% -25.0% 18% -21.3%
20% -32.3% 14% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$1,126
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses130 / 66
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)196 / 198
History coverage108d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $87 $83 −$3 (-4%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? Down 70¢ 76¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $161 −$43 -27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $95 −$1 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $66 −$1 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$77 +1544%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Trump post "Pope" on Truth Social this week? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? Jun 18 $202 +$11 +5%
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Jun 18 $208 +$10 +5%
Will Trump post "Russia" on Truth Social this week? Jun 18 $202 +$10 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $83 −$10 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$55 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $187 +$6 +3%
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $187 +$4 +2%
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $138 +$13 +9%
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $134 +$13 +10%
Will Trump post "Ted" or "Cruz" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $252 −$206 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$10 -59%
Will Trump post "CBS" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $204 +$12 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? Jun 13 $177 +$19 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $184 +$4 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $162 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $77 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $68 +$14 +21%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 09 $37 −$13 -34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $97 −$10 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$8 +67%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 −$2 -16%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -67%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -41%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -45%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $13 +$7 +59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $20 +$10 +50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $16 +$4 +26%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$15 +103%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $7 +$7 +101%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump post "CIA" or "C.I.A" on Truth Social this week? May 30 $132 +$76 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 70¢ $20 22m
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $87 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 0¢ $1 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 0¢ $0 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 0¢ $1 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 100¢ $50 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 100¢ $20 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 0¢ $2 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 0¢ $1 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 0¢ $3 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 100¢ $84 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 100¢ $15 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 100¢ $10 13h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 1¢ $0 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 1¢ $3 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 1¢ $2 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 2¢ $0 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 73¢ $11 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 73¢ $15 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 75¢ $4 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 73¢ $37 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 72¢ $15 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 0¢ $1 37h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 0¢ $0 37h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 100¢ $135 37h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 60¢ $9 47h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 63¢ $13 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 69¢ $8 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 69¢ $5 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 67¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.03 · official $105.03 (match) · 691 history records