Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f9e…d520
other · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$81 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$125 · open +$44
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$361
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)29 / 42
History coverage13d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 13 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $149 $204 +$56 (+38%)
Paraguay leading at halftime? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? No 85¢ 86¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? No 82¢ 84¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? No 89¢ 88¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? No 89¢ 90¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 47¢ 37¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 15¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? No 79¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +13%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $25 +$8 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 +$14 +192%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $43 +$10 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$54
sports 10% −$27
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $45 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 70¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 82¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $21 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $3 5h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $2 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 71¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 73¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 73¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 83¢ $12 7h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 89¢ $14 8h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $16 9h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 89¢ $12 11h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 17h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -52.2% -56.7% 28% 20% -39.1%
≤30d 29 -58.8% -62.7% 24% 17% -43.7%
≤90d 29 -58.8% -62.7% 24% 17% -43.7%
all 29 -58.8% -62.7% 24% 17% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.7% 17% -43.7%
10% -66.3% 14% -49.1%
15% -69.5% 7% -54.0%
20% -72.5% 3% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.25 · official $361.25 (match) · 75 history records