Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fa1…ae42
crypto · 460 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,222 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,690 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,690
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses189 / 341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)530 / 460
History coverage4d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day801.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 530 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,219
7 days−$1,690
14 days−$1,690
30 days−$1,690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $13 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 530 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 29% -18.4%
≤30d 530 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 29% -18.4%
≤90d 530 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 29% -18.4%
all 530 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 29% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover801.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 29% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 21% -26.2%
15% -43.2% 13% -33.3%
20% -48.7% 9% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records