Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:15:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fa1…f1e6 crypto 1136 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate52%591W / 545L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$228
14 days−$531
30 days−$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$380
weather 7% +$85
sports 7% −$198
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 45% -20.9%
≤30d 503 -6.9% -15.7% 58% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 1136 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 27% -11.3%
all 1136 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 27% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 27% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 21% -19.8%
15% -29.2% 16% -27.5%
20% -36.1% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses591 / 545
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1136 / 1136
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $130 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $73 +$27 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records