trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 37¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+208%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $42 | −$1 | -2% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jan 31 | $8 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4000 on July 28? | Aug 10 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi | Jul 31 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jul 30 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jul 30 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jul 30 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jul 30 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jul 29 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jul 29 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 29 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jul 29 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 29 | $52 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Jul 28 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? | Jul 28 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? | Jul 28 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jul 28 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3700 on July 28? | Jul 28 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1? | Jul 28 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and | Jul 28 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jul 28 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 28 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jul 27 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jul 27 | $70 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 28 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 14% | 0% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 0% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 0% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -34.0% |