Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

4F 0x4fa2…32d8 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$11 (+12%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day11.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+11.2%	+0.6%	57%	43%	+1.8%
≤30d	21	+11.2%	+0.6%	57%	43%	+1.8%
≤90d	21	+11.2%	+0.6%	57%	43%	+1.8%
all	21	+11.2%	+0.6%	57%	43%	+1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.6%	43%	+1.8%
10%	-9.0%	33%	-8.0%
15%	-17.8%	29%	-16.9%
20%	-25.9%	29%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +16% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage4d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day11.1

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$2	-48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+64%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	+$6	+281%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	−$2	-60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$3	−$1	-47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15?	Jun 15	$4	$0	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$3	+$8	+249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$3	+$2	+79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	$0	+8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$7	+128%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$6	−$5	-85%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$11	+$9	+78%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	29¢	$3	30m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	SELL Saudi Arabia	100¢	$8	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$4	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	87¢	$1	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	79¢	$1	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	69¢	$2	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	26¢	$1	5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	32¢	$2	9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$3	10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	60¢	$5	10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15?	SELL Yes	88¢	$4	11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15?	BUY Yes	80¢	$4	11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	58¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Up	52¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$3	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$4	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$3	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$3	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$5	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$5	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$6	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$5	17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	59¢	$2	25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$2	35h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$3	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records