Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4fa8…c69c crypto 307 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,197 (-1%) realized −$2,898 · open −$4,299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%286W / 18L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,379per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$17,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 174d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$4,783
sports 6% −$2,188
tech 6% +$67
politics 4% −$4,191
other 1% −$460
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -14.4% -22.5% 70% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 47 -8.3% -17.0% 83% 9% -14.8%
≤90d 123 -6.0% -14.9% 89% 7% -11.3%
all 304 -1.6% -11.0% 94% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 4% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 4% -18.8%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$4,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$1,005 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$17,121
Realized−$2,898
Unrealized−$4,299
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses286 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)304 / 307
History coverage174d
Avg bet$3,379
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $7,065 $11,255 +$4,190 (+59%)
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Egypt 96¢ 95¢ $3,000 $2,990 −$10 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $7,065 $2,874 −$4,191 (-59%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 2¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,002 +$77 +3%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,001 +$26 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $3,003 −$233 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 −$86 -98%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $3,001 +$17 +1%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $3,004 +$153 +5%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $3,002 +$59 +2%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $3,001 +$31 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 −$229 -76%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,004 +$153 +5%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $3,000 +$12 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $3,001 +$22 +1%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 16 $3,000 +$7 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $300 +$328 +109%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,030 +$17 +1%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,000 +$6 +0%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,981 +$32 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,980 +$8 +0%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $3,006 −$3,000 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $3,001 +$28 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $312 +$136 +44%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $3,500 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5AM ET Jun 03 $4,972 −$4,970 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 02 $1,379 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8AM ET Jun 01 $2,745 +$36 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $224 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2AM ET Jun 01 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1PM ET Jun 01 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10AM ET Jun 01 $4,997 +$6 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $321 +$133 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET May 31 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 30 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 29 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET May 28 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4AM ET May 28 $2,003 +$40 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $2,631 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET May 27 $4,987 +$13 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6AM ET May 26 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1PM ET May 26 $1,973 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET May 26 $5,996 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10AM ET May 25 $10,083 +$43 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET May 25 $4,998 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6AM ET May 08 $5,998 +$22 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1PM ET May 06 $3,002 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11AM ET May 06 $3,002 +$31 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY Egypt 96¢ $3,004 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 97¢ $3,002 3h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $3,001 9h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 86¢ $1,997 25h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $3,003 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $44 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $44 29h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $3,001 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 95¢ $3,004 2d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $3,002 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $73 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 3d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Czechia 99¢ $3,001 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $3,004 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 4d
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $3,000 4d
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $316 5d
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $2,681 5d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY France 99¢ $3,001 5d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $3,000 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $300 6d
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $3,030 6d
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $1,094 7d
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $1,906 7d
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $2,981 8d
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 100¢ $2,980 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,121.00 · official $17,128.04 (match) · 1753 history records