Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fa9…b1e6 crypto 1059 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-4%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate65%686W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$120
sports 1% −$2
weather 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -5.8% -14.7% 57% 2% -13.8%
≤30d 87 -5.8% -14.7% 57% 2% -13.8%
≤90d 1058 -4.1% -13.3% 65% 15% -14.0%
all 1059 -4.1% -13.3% 65% 15% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 15% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 13% -22.2%
15% -29.2% 13% -29.8%
20% -36.1% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses686 / 373
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1059 / 1059
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1059 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2781 history records