Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4F 0x4fa9…0397 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +13.3% +2.5% 69% 62% -2.9%
≤30d 16 +13.3% +2.5% 69% 62% -2.9%
≤90d 16 +13.3% +2.5% 69% 62% -2.9%
all 16 +13.3% +2.5% 69% 62% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 62% -2.9%
10% -7.3% 44% -12.2%
15% -16.3% 31% -20.7%
20% -24.5% 25% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$46 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $71 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin above 59,400 on June 29, 11AM ET? Jun 29 $145 −$38 -26%
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 29, 10AM ET? Jun 29 $72 +$34 +47%
Bitcoin above 59,400 on June 29, 10AM ET? Jun 29 $72 +$55 +76%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $62 +$7 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $51 +$54 +105%
Bitcoin above 60,600 on June 26, 11AM ET? Jun 26 $58 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin above 59,800 on June 26, 11AM ET? Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin above 58,400 on June 26, 10AM ET? Jun 26 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 26, 10AM ET? Jun 26 $91 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin above 59,400 on June 25, 10PM ET? Jun 26 $36 +$54 +152%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $81 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin above 59,000 on June 25, 12PM ET? Jun 25 $58 +$13 +23%
Ethereum above 1,570 on June 25, 11AM ET? Jun 25 $52 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin above 59,400 on June 25, 11AM ET? Jun 25 $66 −$64 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $2 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records