Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fab…5d4c
other · 42 markets active 13h ago
0.0score
−$173 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$182 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage12d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$143
14 days−$182
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? No 86¢ 98¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $236 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 52 million views on day 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $288 +$731 +254%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $109 −$106 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $241 −$236 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$6 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $149 −$135 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $71 −$59 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$30 -60%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $224 −$108 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $8 −$5 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $12 −$7 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 04 $213 −$195 -92%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 04 $32 −$21 -65%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 04 $1,991 +$172 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 04 $22 −$9 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $31 −$8 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $5,405 +$58 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $596 +$18 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $6 −$5 -81%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $78 −$70 -89%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 52 million views on day 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 03 $0 $0 +94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $22 −$20 -93%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $6 +$4 +78%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 31 $70 +$48 +68%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $575 +$195 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $97 −$84 -87%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $220 −$113 -51%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $3 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% +$50
other 48% −$118
tech 2% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 13h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 13h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,000 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $18 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -70.4% -73.3% 6% 6% -3.5%
≤30d 41 -21.9% -29.3% 22% 15% -7.9%
≤90d 41 -21.9% -29.3% 22% 15% -7.9%
all 41 -21.9% -29.3% 22% 15% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 15% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 15% -16.7%
15% -42.2% 12% -24.7%
20% -47.9% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.42 · official $41.42 (match) · 915 history records