Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4fac…63f0 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$19
politics 35% −$16
crypto 5% −$1
sports 5% +$1
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 123 -3.5% -12.6% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 134 -2.3% -11.6% 12% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage114d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $762 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $289 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $259 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $295 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $294 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $779 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $270 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $539 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $261 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $428 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $233 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $258 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $455 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 24 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $277 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $44 13h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $44 17h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 19d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $263 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $264 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 23d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $201 24d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $201 24d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $230 24d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $289 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 381 history records