Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4F 0x4fad…c28c crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,152 (+15%) realized +$2,159 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$402
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$270
world 16% +$2,670
politics 8% −$386
sports 4% +$137
crypto 3% −$53
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -30.2% -36.8% 60% 20% -7.6%
≤30d 10 -30.2% -36.8% 60% 20% -7.6%
≤90d 28 -16.2% -24.2% 57% 36% -10.0%
all 32 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 34% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 34% +5.0%
10% -29.2% 31% -5.0%
15% -36.0% 19% -14.2%
20% -42.3% 16% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$127 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$939
Realized+$2,159
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage586d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $935 $928 −$7 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,014 +$283 +9%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $101 −$83 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,005 +$168 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $503 +$137 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $204 −$181 -89%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $500 +$16 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,510 +$489 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 14 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 14 $37 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 14 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 14 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026? Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$22 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$15 +149%
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? Mar 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $1,763 +$2,653 +150%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 22 $1,000 −$286 -29%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 05 $49 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,483 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 3h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $813 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,064 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $640 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 31h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 32h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $516 41h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $500 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,086 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 88¢ $913 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.89 · official $938.89 (match) · 91 history records