Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fae…1ab6 crypto 429 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-5%) realized −$68 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%68W / 314L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day111.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$184
weather 2% −$15
sports 1% +$9
other 1% −$1
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 382 -54.8% -59.1% 18% 16% -30.6%
≤30d 382 -54.8% -59.1% 18% 16% -30.6%
≤90d 382 -54.8% -59.1% 18% 16% -30.6%
all 382 -54.8% -59.1% 18% 16% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.1% 16% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -63.0% 14% -37.3%
15% -66.6% 13% -43.3%
20% -69.9% 10% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses68 / 314
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions47
Markets (closed)382 / 429
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day111.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Down 51¢ 81¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+57%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+83%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $125 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$7 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -99%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on June 13 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 28¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 94¢ $211 7h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $124 27h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? BUY No 0¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 19¢ $5 45h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.62 · official $36.27 · 776 history records