Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4fb0…6197 sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,395 (-15%) realized −$1,382 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$426
7 days−$21
14 days−$720
30 days−$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$902
other 4% −$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.2% -20.5% 50% 43% -10.2%
≤30d 49 -12.2% -20.6% 41% 39% -22.4%
≤90d 49 -12.2% -20.6% 41% 39% -22.4%
all 68 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 37% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 37% -21.9%
10% -25.3% 35% -29.4%
15% -32.5% 28% -36.2%
20% -39.1% 24% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$73 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$1,382
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage123d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 62¢ $121 $108 −$13 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $491 +$155 +32%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $105 +$150 +142%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $70 +$122 +172%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $128 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $94 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $453 +$146 +32%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $285 +$26 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $439 −$245 -56%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $477 +$93 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $76 +$33 +44%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $157 +$93 +60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $76 +$144 +189%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $209 −$205 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 09 $390 −$384 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $48 +$39 +83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $72 +$26 +36%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $206 +$161 +78%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $34 −$33 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $93 +$27 +29%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 08 $65 −$63 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $26 −$2 -9%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $74 −$6 -8%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 08 $347 −$342 -99%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs STEP (+1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $42 +$33 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $202 −$198 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $70 +$35 +50%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 04 $102 −$4 -4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $28 −$7 -24%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 03 $36 −$7 -19%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $115 −$17 -15%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $91 +$108 +118%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $51 +$47 +93%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $90 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $124 −$52 -42%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs WAZABI - Map 2 Winner May 28 $187 −$6 -3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $196 −$9 -4%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $106 −$104 -98%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Pigeons (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group Stage Mar 07 $485 −$10 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $123 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $646 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $170 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $156 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $165 20h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 41¢ $105 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $70 44h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $128 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $94 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $91 4d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL INOX Division 100¢ $599 5d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 23¢ $53 5d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 23¢ $2 5d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 23¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY INOX Division 75¢ $453 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 71¢ $310 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 64¢ $285 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $365 5d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) SELL Monte 100¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $249 5d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Monte 78¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 52¢ $190 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 79¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 78¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 78¢ $206 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 78¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 78¢ $198 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 29¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 53¢ $26 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 54¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.24 · official $108.24 (match) · 172 history records