Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fb7…f6f3 crypto 611 markets active 6d ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,671 (-3%) realized −$1,671 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate52%318W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$124
14 days−$81
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.0% -17.7% 56% 11% -16.0%
≤30d 435 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 542 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 9% -10.1%
all 611 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 9% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 5% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,671
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses318 / 293
Open positions0
Markets (closed)611 / 611
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$86
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 611 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$16 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$51 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $78 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $196 −$27 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $88 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $75 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $120 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $60 −$34 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $92 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $86 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records