Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fb7…15ae world 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$4
politics 19% +$3
other 18% −$10
sports 16% −$10
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 24 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 72 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 4% -9.4%
all 79 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 6% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage528d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $48 +$4 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $66 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $88 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $47 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $35 +$5 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $11 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 +$2 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $16 −$4 -25%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $32 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $41 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 15m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $28 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $32 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $35 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $35 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $33 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $33 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $32 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $7 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $26 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.51 · official $0.00 · 325 history records