Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4F 0x4fbb…cc4d world 8 markets active 4d ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-26%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$4
other 24% −$2
finance 25% −$1
sports 15% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +27.9% +15.7% 67% 67% +7.8%
≤90d 4 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 50% -10.0%
all 5 -23.2% -30.6% 40% 40% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 40% -30.3%
10% -37.2% 40% -37.0%
15% -43.3% 40% -43.1%
20% -48.8% 40% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage91d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $3 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $1 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $3 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 47¢ $2 49d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 57¢ $3 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 53¢ $3 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $5.17 (match) · 10 history records