Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fbc…4262 weather 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%76W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$20
other 11% +$3
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -36.3% -42.4% 62% 0% -10.8%
all 122 -35.7% -41.8% 62% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 0% -10.7%
10% -47.4% 0% -19.2%
15% -52.4% 0% -27.0%
20% -57.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses76 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? May 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20 Apr 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20? Apr 28 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 20? Apr 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 76°F or higher on April 19? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 2 Apr 20 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? Apr 20 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 19? Apr 20 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 19? Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 $0 -1%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 17? Apr 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ap Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 17? Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 16? Apr 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C or below on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 15? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on April 15? Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 14 Apr 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 13? Apr 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 14? Apr 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 13? Apr 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this wee Apr 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 12? Apr 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 11 Apr 13 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? SELL No 100¢ $76 20d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $76 20d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 20? BUY No 1¢ $0 59d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 2 SELL No 99¢ $15 59d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 59d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $14 59d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 2 BUY No 91¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20 BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 76°F or higher on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $14 61d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 76°F or higher on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 61d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 306 history records