Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4F 0x4fbd…64b2 sports 30 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+13%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$7
other 42% +$3
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +22.9% +11.2% 47% 47% +5.5%
≤30d 19 +22.9% +11.2% 47% 47% +5.5%
≤90d 19 +22.9% +11.2% 47% 47% +5.5%
all 19 +22.9% +11.2% 47% 47% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 47% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 47% -4.6%
15% -9.2% 42% -13.9%
20% -18.1% 37% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)19 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 29¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +106%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -56%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$8 +88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 36¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 71¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 71¢ $2 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $2 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 28¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $2 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran $0 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $1 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $2 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 39¢ $2 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 15¢ $1 29h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 30h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 24¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.55 · official $14.55 · 56 history records